It's really surprised me how poorly Linux has done these past few years. I liked to use the analogy of open architecture on the hardware side, and how that allowed the IBM PC "compatible" to dominate--surely an open architecture on the O.S. side would have the same effect. But sadly, that doesn't seem to have happened. I guess the main issue is that open hardware still allowed companies to make money, whereas open source software doesn't seem to have that. Sure, you can still charge competitively for service and support, but that doesn't seem to be enough. We've kinda glommed on to this idea that software is a product, not a service, and we're just beginning to see some business models on the fringes trying to change that (mostly via subscription services and perhaps in things like virus software). It also doesn't help that there are so many different Linux distros out there and none of them seem to have a slick spokesperson or marketing team. It's just still stuck in that uber-geek community, many of whom are downright hostile to anyone who hasn't drunken the koolaid. Yeah, I just don't see it happening anytime soon.
I can see it in my head, though. You just buy a year or so of support for your o.s., perhaps a "lifetime support" option (I mean, what are we really talking about here, 8 years, tops?) and that gets you full support and updates for your "free o.s.," as well as fund future development and code for all the problematic devices and compatibility issues. I just don't believe Canon or other hardware makers are anti-Linux. If they see that Linux is worth supporting they will provide the drivers, or at least make it easy for others to. If they don't, and some rival company does, they lose marketshare. Also, I don't think the support would be cheaper than Windows. You'd probably end up paying more in the long run, actually, since Microsoft usually provides support for a ridiculous number of years anyway. With what I'm talking about, you'd probably pay at least $100, maybe $200 a year, and that'd add up over time depending on economies of scale (i.e., the reason MS can charge so little is that they sell so many copies).
In any case, I'm convinced that you can't beat Windows with a cheaper product, better product, or "freer" product. People just don't care about those things. Look at how long DOS was able to persist when everybody else had GUIs, and it's not like DOS was cheap. I think you're 100% correct about compatibility and familiarity trumping all else. People just don't want to have to deal with compatibility issues or learning anything new unless it's absolutely necessary. You could have a Linux OS out there that was leaner, faster, and in everyday way put Vista or Windows 7 to shame, give it away for free, and have people on every street corner touting it, but it wouldn't do a damn bit of good. The only way it can possibly succeed is if there is a for-profit company behind it with a real marketing team and a product they believe in--and enough capital to ensure that they can overcome obstacles such as drivers and provide decent support. Is Google that company?
It's really surprised me how poorly Linux has done these past few years. I liked to use the analogy of open architecture on the hardware side, and how that allowed the IBM PC "compatible" to dominate--surely an open architecture on the O.S. side would have the same effect. But sadly, that doesn't seem to have happened. I guess the main issue is that open hardware still allowed companies to make money, whereas open source software doesn't seem to have that. Sure, you can still charge competitively for service and support, but that doesn't seem to be enough. We've kinda glommed on to this idea that software is a product, not a service, and we're just beginning to see some business models on the fringes trying to change that (mostly via subscription services and perhaps in things like virus software). It also doesn't help that there are so many different Linux distros out there and none of them seem to have a slick spokesperson or marketing team. It's just still stuck in that uber-geek community, many of whom are downright hostile to anyone who hasn't drunken the koolaid. Yeah, I just don't see it happening anytime soon.
I can see it in my head, though. You just buy a year or so of support for your o.s., perhaps a "lifetime support" option (I mean, what are we really talking about here, 8 years, tops?) and that gets you full support and updates for your "free o.s.," as well as fund future development and code for all the problematic devices and compatibility issues. I just don't believe Canon or other hardware makers are anti-Linux. If they see that Linux is worth supporting they will provide the drivers, or at least make it easy for others to. If they don't, and some rival company does, they lose marketshare. Also, I don't think the support would be cheaper than Windows. You'd probably end up paying more in the long run, actually, since Microsoft usually provides support for a ridiculous number of years anyway. With what I'm talking about, you'd probably pay at least $100, maybe $200 a year, and that'd add up over time depending on economies of scale (i.e., the reason MS can charge so little is that they sell so many copies).
In any case, I'm convinced that you can't beat Windows with a cheaper product, better product, or "freer" product. People just don't care about those things. Look at how long DOS was able to persist when everybody else had GUIs, and it's not like DOS was cheap. I think you're 100% correct about compatibility and familiarity trumping all else. People just don't want to have to deal with compatibility issues or learning anything new unless it's absolutely necessary. You could have a Linux OS out there that was leaner, faster, and in everyday way put Vista or Windows 7 to shame, give it away for free, and have people on every street corner touting it, but it wouldn't do a damn bit of good. The only way it can possibly succeed is if there is a for-profit company behind it with a real marketing team and a product they believe in--and enough capital to ensure that they can overcome obstacles such as drivers and provide decent support. Is Google that company?
Matt Barton, Managing Editor
Location: St. Cloud, Minnesota, USA
Email: matt@armchairarcade.com