Ahem. A person can't be right about something if they've been predicting it for the past 8+ years. A prediction has to happen in a reasonable timeframe and that's long since passed. I've said it from the beginning and will stick to it to the end of time, there will NEVER be another crash. Of the two crashes that happened in the late 70's and mid 80's, respectively - obviously the latter crash being more impactful since there was more to lose and hence got the name "The Great Videogame Crash" - there were market conditions that were considerably different than what we've had ever since post second crash (late 1985 and beyond). The videogame market back then was composed of lots of smaller players with limited financial backing and a buying public who was still adjusting to the idea of videogames. The videogame industry grew faster than demand and there were some colossally bad decisions made, especially with no prior history to draw on. Now, with videogames permeating popular culture and demand constantly on the rise with much bigger players with much deeper pockets and even more profits to be made, videogames are not going anywhere. Once something becomes part of popular culture, you can't get it out, even with early growing pains (television anyone? rock music?). With videogames on every device imaginable and even used a pack-ins in cereal boxes, etc., there's no possibility of a crash. Where there's money to be made, there will be product, plain and simple.
As with any major industry though, there CAN be seasonal depressions and even overall depressions, but that's far different from a "crash". It's the difference between making $4 billion one year and "only" $3.5 billion the next, or flat growth versus double digit growth year on year. These things are also cyclical as we go through new technological cycles. All things considered, we made the transition from the moribund Gamecube and now all-but-dead Xbox very smoothly. The PS2 is still hanging on and in many ways still dominating.
I don't think any of what I said doesn't apply to ALL territories. I do understand your frustration Mark, but I think your case is more an example of demand NOT being met, not there being supply and no demand as would beget a crash or depression. There's a big difference.
======================================
Bill Loguidice, Managing Director
Armchair Arcade, Inc.
(A PC Magazine Top 100 Website)
======================================
*************************** Bill Loguidice, Managing Director
Armchair Arcade, Inc.
Ahem. A person can't be right about something if they've been predicting it for the past 8+ years. A prediction has to happen in a reasonable timeframe and that's long since passed. I've said it from the beginning and will stick to it to the end of time, there will NEVER be another crash. Of the two crashes that happened in the late 70's and mid 80's, respectively - obviously the latter crash being more impactful since there was more to lose and hence got the name "The Great Videogame Crash" - there were market conditions that were considerably different than what we've had ever since post second crash (late 1985 and beyond). The videogame market back then was composed of lots of smaller players with limited financial backing and a buying public who was still adjusting to the idea of videogames. The videogame industry grew faster than demand and there were some colossally bad decisions made, especially with no prior history to draw on. Now, with videogames permeating popular culture and demand constantly on the rise with much bigger players with much deeper pockets and even more profits to be made, videogames are not going anywhere. Once something becomes part of popular culture, you can't get it out, even with early growing pains (television anyone? rock music?). With videogames on every device imaginable and even used a pack-ins in cereal boxes, etc., there's no possibility of a crash. Where there's money to be made, there will be product, plain and simple.
As with any major industry though, there CAN be seasonal depressions and even overall depressions, but that's far different from a "crash". It's the difference between making $4 billion one year and "only" $3.5 billion the next, or flat growth versus double digit growth year on year. These things are also cyclical as we go through new technological cycles. All things considered, we made the transition from the moribund Gamecube and now all-but-dead Xbox very smoothly. The PS2 is still hanging on and in many ways still dominating.
I don't think any of what I said doesn't apply to ALL territories. I do understand your frustration Mark, but I think your case is more an example of demand NOT being met, not there being supply and no demand as would beget a crash or depression. There's a big difference.
======================================
Bill Loguidice, Managing Director
Armchair Arcade, Inc.
(A PC Magazine Top 100 Website)
======================================
***************************
Bill Loguidice, Managing Director
Armchair Arcade, Inc.