Well, the one thing we have to keep in mind is that the bloom is still on the Wii rose. While it's still over 5 million units behind the Xbox 360, it's also not handicapped in Japan like the 360 - with its Western technology and paradigm - is. The PS3, even though units are more or less available in many areas, has still not had a full worldwide launch (or at least in all the territories that matter). Early momentum is easy, sustaining it over the long haul with the right titles that people will actually buy is another story. It will be interesting to see if Nintendo can keep the right titles coming for the Wii. The 360 is guaranteed to have system selling blockbusters pick up the slack starting in the fall (most notably GTA 4 and Halo 3) and the PS3 is also still a few big titles away from getting on people's radar (will GTA 4 do it?). It will be interesting to see if the 360 can maintain any of its worldwide lead in the mid-term without having sales in the critical territory of Japan (which it will never have) and how much steam the PS3 can pick up (and it will, despite the fervent hope of Sony haters), particularly since it hasn't even launched in Europe yet. There are a lot of factors at play here. It remains to be seen if indeed "non-gamers" are buying the Wii and if they are, will they actually buy games for it? Also, will the hardcore gamers who are enjoying the Wii continue to be entertained by the game selection in six months? (certainly the virtual console helps tremendously). Online gameplay is still a no-go on the Wii and looks like it will be very limited over the next year. Again, will that have an impact? It's something of a cop out, but we won't know where the three top systems stand and can make accurate long term predictions until January 2008, when enough big-name franchise titles will be out on each of the systems to make a difference! However, I predict that by that time, we WILL be able to predict with a high degree of accuracy where all three systems will stand in worldwide sales and support over the remaining term of this generation. I'm thinking some people will be in for some big surprises...
======================================
Bill Loguidice, Managing Director
Armchair Arcade, Inc.
(A PC Magazine Top 100 Website)
======================================
*************************** Bill Loguidice, Managing Director
Armchair Arcade, Inc.
Well, the one thing we have to keep in mind is that the bloom is still on the Wii rose. While it's still over 5 million units behind the Xbox 360, it's also not handicapped in Japan like the 360 - with its Western technology and paradigm - is. The PS3, even though units are more or less available in many areas, has still not had a full worldwide launch (or at least in all the territories that matter). Early momentum is easy, sustaining it over the long haul with the right titles that people will actually buy is another story. It will be interesting to see if Nintendo can keep the right titles coming for the Wii. The 360 is guaranteed to have system selling blockbusters pick up the slack starting in the fall (most notably GTA 4 and Halo 3) and the PS3 is also still a few big titles away from getting on people's radar (will GTA 4 do it?). It will be interesting to see if the 360 can maintain any of its worldwide lead in the mid-term without having sales in the critical territory of Japan (which it will never have) and how much steam the PS3 can pick up (and it will, despite the fervent hope of Sony haters), particularly since it hasn't even launched in Europe yet. There are a lot of factors at play here. It remains to be seen if indeed "non-gamers" are buying the Wii and if they are, will they actually buy games for it? Also, will the hardcore gamers who are enjoying the Wii continue to be entertained by the game selection in six months? (certainly the virtual console helps tremendously). Online gameplay is still a no-go on the Wii and looks like it will be very limited over the next year. Again, will that have an impact? It's something of a cop out, but we won't know where the three top systems stand and can make accurate long term predictions until January 2008, when enough big-name franchise titles will be out on each of the systems to make a difference! However, I predict that by that time, we WILL be able to predict with a high degree of accuracy where all three systems will stand in worldwide sales and support over the remaining term of this generation. I'm thinking some people will be in for some big surprises...
======================================
Bill Loguidice, Managing Director
Armchair Arcade, Inc.
(A PC Magazine Top 100 Website)
======================================
***************************
Bill Loguidice, Managing Director
Armchair Arcade, Inc.